(Laurentian University of Sudbury, 2014-05-16) Khapaeva, Tatiana
The purpose of this thesis is to show how the theory and practice of credibility
can bene t statistical modeling. The task was, fundamentally, to derive models that
could provide the best estimate of the losses for any given class and also to assess the
variability of the losses, both from a class perspective as well as from an aggregate
perspective. The model tting and diagnostic tests will be carried out using standard
statistical packages. A case study that predicts the number of deaths due to cancer is
considered, utilizing data furnished by the Colorado Department of Public Health and
Environment. Several credibility models are used, including Bayesian, B uhlmann and
B uhlmann-Straub approaches, which are useful in a wide range of actuarial applications.
